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Income Growth Still Softer Than Expected - 9/16/15

Businesses in trucking, construction, healthcare and in other segments have been complaining about expanding skills shortages.  Workers with the right sets of experience are difficult to find, industry leaders claim, driving up costs and inefficiency.  With the nation’s unemployment rate now down to five point one percent, incomes should be climbing faster. 

Many economists had predicted that this would be the year that wage inflation began to become apparent.  It hasn’t happened.  As pointed out by writer Neil Irwin, average hourly earnings for all private sector workers were up by two point two percent in August from a year earlier according to data released earlier this month. 

That represents a rate of wage growth similar to what it has been for several years.  In fact, there has been little to no evidence of acceleration in pay as twenty fifteen has progressed.  Other data point to the same conclusion.  Employment compensation costs, which include both wage and benefit costs, are up about 2 percent over the past year.  If it weren’t for surprisingly low inflation, due in part to a collapse in oil prices, real wage growth would be even softer.

Anirban Basu, Chariman Chief Executive Officer of Sage Policy Group (SPG), is one of the Mid-Atlantic region's leading economic consultants. Prior to founding SPG he was Chairman and CEO of Optimal Solutions Group, a company he co-founded and which continues to operate. Anirban has also served as Director of Applied Economics and Senior Economist for RESI, where he used his extensive knowledge of the Mid-Atlantic region to support numerous clients in their strategic decision-making processes. Clients have included the Maryland Department of Transportation, St. Paul Companies, Baltimore Symphony Orchestra Players Committee and the Martin O'Malley mayoral campaign.