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Democrat Jon Tester of Montana has won three U.S. Senate races. But they've always been very close. He's never won by more than 4%. His race this year is expected to be similarly tight. That means a third-party candidate could have a real impact on the contest. And now Montana's libertarian candidate for Senate says Republicans made him a special offer if he would drop out. Montana Public Radio's Shaylee Ragar reports.

SHAYLEE RAGAR, BYLINE: Third-party candidates may only get a relative handful of votes here. But Montana State University political scientist Eric Raile says...

ERIC RAILE: If you have a libertarian candidate getting 3- or 4% of the vote, that is enough to sway those elections.

RAGAR: Raile says that's typically what libertarian candidates pull in Montana. When Tester was first elected in 2006, by about 1%, analysts credited the libertarian in that race with splitting enough votes away from the incumbent Republican for Tester to win. Raile says Montana Republicans, in particular, are known for their independent streaks.

RAILE: The limited government ideology of libertarians is attractive to many Republicans.

RAGAR: Sid Daoud is the libertarian candidate for Montana's Senate seat this year. He says his party requested meetings with Tester and his Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy. The Republicans responded with an invitation to meet on the same day former President Trump was holding a rally 300 miles away. The national Libertarian Party said Daoud could take a chartered flight. Daoud did. He says he's not sure who paid for it. Neither the Libertarian Party nor the Trump campaign responded to questions about the flight.

SID DAOUD: The flight was, like, the best part of the whole thing. I mean, flying over Montana is just gorgeous.

RAGAR: At the meeting, Daoud says candidate Tim Sheehy and Montana Senator Steve Daines, both Republicans, didn't explicitly ask him to quit the race, but he says they told him withdrawing would be good for the country and help the GOP win control of the Senate. He says he was told...

DAOUD: That if I were to decide to step down and endorse, you know, Tim Sheehy, they would be happy to bring me onstage and do it there.

RAGAR: Daoud declined and was then offered a VIP pass to watch Trump speak.

(CHEERING)

RAGAR: About half an hour in, Trump called on him to stand up.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

DONALD TRUMP: Where is our libertarian friend? And I think he's going to be with us. Where is he?

RAGAR: Totally unexpected, Daoud says, as was this...

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

TRUMP: I think he's going to be giving you a very nice surprise very soon.

RAGAR: Daoud interpreted that as Trump implying the libertarian would drop out of the race. And a popular, local conservative talk show host posted to X that it sounded like Daoud would step down and endorse Sheehy.

DAOUD: There was a clear message, and I got it. But, you know, I'm a bullheaded ex-Army sergeant, and you really can't encourage me or make me do anything that I don't want to do.

RAGAR: In a post on X after the Trump rally, national Libertarian Party chair, Angela McArdle, didn't address whether Daoud should stay in the race but thanked him for making libertarians look great and said Trump treated him really well.

A recent Emerson College poll put Sheehy and Tester in a dead heat, with Sheehy gaining ground since the last poll in March. The new poll found that 5% of likely Montana voters are undecided. However, it did not account for the libertarian in the race. Spokespeople for Sheehy and the Republican Party say they did not encourage Daoud to drop out. They say they told Daoud they all have far more in common with each other than with Democrats. For NPR News, I'm Shaylee Ragar, in Helena.

(SOUNDBITE OF ERIC TUCKER SONG, "FWM (FEAT. FRE$H)") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

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