AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
For Democrats last week, it wasn't just a loss. It was a shellacking, and the lids aren't back on the cans yet. Former President Trump increased his vote margins in traditionally red areas and even in traditionally blue ones, too. Exit polls showed he also had increased support across a number of demographics. Does this nationwide shift toward Republicans mark a historical realignment of the American electorate? Joining me now to talk about this is A.B. Stoddard, columnist at The Bulwark. Welcome to the program.
A.B. STODDARD: Thanks for having me.
RASCOE: Do you think these election results show voters making a long-term move to the right? Or is this a dramatic swing that'll be followed by another dramatic swing, like we've seen, you know, from Bush to Obama, from Obama to Trump, from Trump to Biden, and now back to Trump?
STODDARD: It is true that we have had a volatile electorate for a while, so I think it is fluid. We saw a whole bunch of Democratic incumbents in the Senate hold on in states that Trump won, which means people are splitting their tickets. They're thinking about these things in different ways. They're discerning. So I think that this realignment doesn't necessarily mean something permanent. At the same time, when you have young voters vote for the first time for a dominant figure like Trump, it is likely those voters remain Republican. So it's different parts of the electorate might swing back and forth, but for some, this might be the beginning of a durable realignment towards the right.
RASCOE: How much of this is about the Republican Party, and then how much of this do you think is specifically tied to Trump?
STODDARD: I think a lot of it is tied to Trump. In 2020, down-ballot Republicans did a little better than Trump. In this election, he did better than them. He has won young men for the first time. Very popular with Latino men - a 33-, by some estimates, others 35-point, depending on the exit poll, swing from Latino men supporting Biden in 2020 to supporting Trump in 2024. I think if you ask a lot of those voters what are Trump's policies, they'll talk about immigration, and they'll say the economy. And those are agenda items of Trump's, you know, that people support.
But for a lot of people, they don't know what a tariff is. They don't really believe that he has mass deportation plans he's going to follow through on. For a lot of people, Trump is sort of an attitude, especially when you talk to young people, and I have. They like the fact that he plays by no rules, that he's a big F-U. And so he is, for many people, sort of a lifestyle brand.
RASCOE: How do Republicans maintain this, if it's so wrapped up in one person?
STODDARD: We're going to find out. I mean, I don't know that people would come to a stadium parking lot four days in advance of a rally and wait for JD Vance or Don Junior. We don't know yet. That said, if Republicans deliver on securing the border, and people somehow believe that the price of goods has been lowered during a Trump second term, they will reap the rewards of that. If he doesn't, then they have to try to win without Trump eventually. And that's a challenge for the party that is going to be interesting.
RASCOE: What work do you think Democrats would need to do to shift voters back to their party?
STODDARD: Well, Democrats are in a world of hurt right now, primarily because they don't even know who to gather at the table. I mean, I think Nancy Pelosi has the most moral authority left in the party. She and Joe Biden are not speaking. Joe Biden is going to be a nonentity. Harris is not likely to continue to be a real leader of influence in the party. Chuck Schumer is 73. James Clyburn is 84. The Clintons, the Obamas. No one who is at the table this time is going to be a part of the next Democratic Party.
When they're looking at those exit polling and all of the data from this election, and they're watching the flight from the party of noncollege Latino voters, noncollege Black voters, young voters, Jewish voters, union members, they see a real abyss. And so the Democratic Party is now going to be terrified to run a nonwhite nominee or a female nominee. They're just paralyzed right now. I think that it's going to be an enormously complicated endeavor to both put a team together and then chart a path forward.
RASCOE: That's A.B. Stoddard, columnist with The Bulwark. Thanks so much for talking with us.
STODDARD: Oh, thanks for having me. Take care. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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