STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Three elections yesterday offered a chance to see how some voters feel about the second Trump administration. Republicans held on to a pair of congressional seats in conservative districts in Florida, although Republicans worried more than expected. In Wisconsin, a liberal candidate for the state Supreme Court easily supported - easily defeated a conservative backed by Elon Musk. J. Miles Coleman is an elections analyst at the University of Virginia and is following all this. Good morning.
J MILES COLEMAN: Good morning. Thank you so much for having me.
INSKEEP: I'm glad you're with us. What do you make of the results?
COLEMAN: So overall, not too different from a lot of these special elections we've had since Trump entered office really the first time. You know, thinking of those two elections in Florida, you know, the Democrats hoped that they could pick off at least one, but the reality was those districts were so red that they were starting off from so much of a hole. However, they still beat the spread, so to speak, in probably the district that got more attention, Congressional District 6. They cut the margin from Trump plus 30 to Republican plus 15. I think that really helps explain why, towards the end of last week, one of the big bits of news was Representative Elise Stefanik withdrew her nomination. And I think the thinking behind the scenes was, OK, well, if Republicans keep putting up these big underperformances, a district like hers might be sort of on the bubble in a special election.
INSKEEP: I think we should just explain this for people who don't follow it every day. Elise Stefanik was the nominee for United Nations ambassador. She would have had to give up her seat in Congress, leading to another special election, and Republicans looking at how things are going thought they might not win that much closer district. What do you make of the results in Wisconsin, where Susan Crawford will become the Supreme Court justice - the next Supreme Court justice - a liberal who defeated a conservative in a very, very expensive race?
COLEMAN: Yeah. Well, what's - what was interesting is - so if you look at these state Supreme Court races in Wisconsin, the Democrats or the more left-leaning candidates have now won 4 of the past 5 contests there, and they've all been by about exactly the same 10-point margin. So, like, in a way, it wasn't unconsistent (ph) with everything else. But, you know, just for how much money that was
INSKEEP: Yeah.
COLEMAN: ...kind of spent there that - things didn't really move that much.
One thing that I would watch for now going forward because of this election is because the liberal justices are going to keep their majority on the court, when they first got their majority a few years ago, they redrew the legislative maps. And the thinking seems to be, well, the House map could be next. Even though Wisconsin is typically a 50-50 state, the Republicans have six of the eight seats in the House there. That was one reason why people like Elon Musk got so involved in this election because of its national implications. So that's definitely something to be looking out for over this next judicial term or so.
INSKEEP: Yeah. I guess we should note Elon Musk showed up in Wisconsin, offered money to voters, spent $25 million, although Democrats also spent many, many millions...
COLEMAN: Yeah.
INSKEEP: ...As well. Thanks very much for the time, J. Miles Coleman of the University of Virginia - really appreciate it.
COLEMAN: Thank you so much for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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