Johns Hopkins University is undertaking a year-long study into the probability of another ship-bridge collision in the United States, in hopes of reducing the possibility in the future.
The study will look at large amounts of cargo shipping data to calculate the probability that a ship the size of the one that hit the Key Bridge could stray from its path and harm infrastructure.
The study will also look into the possibility that the U.S. has underestimated the probability of future collisions.
“The first thing is looking at traffic and also potentially looking at what traffic is anticipated to be moving forward because this is very likely to increase still even from where we're at,” said Michael Shields, an associate professor of civil and systems engineering at JHU working on the study. “The other side of it is looking at the size of the ships. The size nowadays is much, much larger than when most of these bridges were designed and built. And, as a consequence of that, we need to look at what size ships would potentially make these bridges vulnerable.”
The study is funded by the National Science Foundation through a $200,000 grant.
The authors hope the study will help inform policymakers on what bridges may be vulnerable and to decide how best to protect existing bridges.
“There are going to be billions of dollars that are going to be potentially spent,” Shields said. “The Key bridge itself is estimated to cost nearly $2 billion to rebuild. Protecting bridges across the U.S. is potentially billions more in investments. We want to make those investments wisely with a good informed assessment of the risks to these bridges.”
In late March, the Dali, a nearly 1000-foot cargo ship rammed into the Key Bridge causing it to collapse and killing six people.
The Coast Guard, FBI and National Transportation Safety Bureau are all investigating the incident.
The Coast Guard says it is conducting a national review of port safety and risk management after the collapse.
“It is evident looking more broadly, that the size and complexity of ships has grown over the years, placing greater demands on our marine transportation infrastructure that may not have kept pace with the increased risks that these vessels pose,” Deputy Commandant for Operations Vice Admiral Peter Gautier told Congress earlier this month.
Gautier said the review will look at individual port safety and create a national holistic approach to protecting ports from major incidents like the one at the Key Bridge.