A new study based on mathematical simulations found that the Red Line could save commuters from West and East Baltimore an estimated seven to 21 minutes on their daily work commutes.
The simulation conducted by Johns Hopkins University data scientists focused specifically on how the proposed 14-mile transit line would impact job accessibility, particularly for mid-to-low income jobs. Job accessibility was defined as getting to work in 45 minutes or less.
Hopkins scientists found that an estimated 20% of the mid-to-low income working population on the Red Line’s service area would see a 50% increase in job accessibility. For some of those residents, their commutes would shrink down to 30 minutes or less– also a 50% increase in accessibility. Areas that could see some of the most benefit include Edmondson Village, Clifton Park, Belair-Edison, Greater Rosemont, and Mondawmin, the team found.
Researchers used previous datasets and definitions to determine the range considered mid-to-lower income. For this report, jobs paying around or less than $39,996 per annum (or $3,333 monthly) were considered mid-to-lower income; that salary range accounts for approximately 40% of the jobs in Baltimore City.
While many mid-to-lower income workers live in West Baltimore, many lower-mid-income job centers are located in downtown and East Baltimore.
Throughout this report, jobs paying less than $3,333 per month—equivalent to less than $39,996 per year and accounting for 39.55 percent of the jobs in Baltimore City—are considered mid-to-lower income jobs and used as indicators of the working population who are more likely to benefit from an affordable transit system.
“Our model can show you how long it would take someone to get from any point A to any point B in Baltimore, with and without the Red Line,” said author and applied mathematician Fadil Santosa, in a news release. “The numbers we found surprised us, not just how many jobs would become more accessible, but how it specifically could help many of the people in the city who need it the most.”
Santosa added that he and his team have shared the report with decision-makers.
The Maryland Transportation Administration has yet to announce a final plan for the Red Line. It could be a bus-rapid-transit system or a light rail, but the proposed routes run from Woodlawn in Baltimore County through Canton Crossing in east Baltimore. It would be the first major east-west transit line since the streetcars were abandoned in the early 1960’s.
Transit inequity and job accessibility are well-established challenges in Baltimore City and the greater Baltimore area, particularly for Black workers. About a quarter of the city’s population does not have access to a household vehicle and only about nine percent of the city’s jobs are accessible within a one-hour commute by public transportation.
This isn’t the first study to look at how the Red Line might improve job accessibility but it is the most detailed in analyzing the neighborhood level impacts. Greater Rosemont and Edmondson Village residents could see huge improvements to job accessibility within their 35-minute commute. For residents in Clifton Park, Bel-Air Edison, and Herring Run Park, residents could see great improvements within their 45-minute commute.
“These areas have historically faced challenges in job accessibility, and the Red Line promises to act as an equalizing force. The ripple effects of such increased accessibility can extend beyond just employment opportunities; it can spur local business growth, increase property values, and overall, enhance the quality of life in these communities,” wrote the report authors.
The Red Line is a project now over a decade in the making. The project was nearly shovel-ready, including $900 M in federal funding, when then Governor Larry Hogan (a Republican who is now running to fill Ben Cardin’s seat in the US Senate) decided to cancel the project. He forfeited the federal funds and spent the state dollars that were slated for the project instead on mostly roads and highways outside of the Baltimore area. Hogan called it a “boondoggle” and cited the hefty price tag, nearly $3B, as his reason for canceling the plans.
Governor Wes Moore reinstated the Red Line when he took office in 2023. The Maryland Department of Transportation is awaiting funding to start the project.
