Baltimore is leading among major US cities that have seen reductions in gun violence down to pre-pandemic levels.
An analysis from the liberal policy group Center for American Progress (CAP) found that nationwide gun homicides are on track for a 13.1% reduction from 2023; yet across most of the country, levels of gun violence remain high after a surge between 2019 and 2021.
Researchers found Baltimore led 14 of the nation’s most populous cities set to have fewer gun violence victimizations in 2024 than in 2019. Baltimore had 348 homicides in 2019; if current trends continue, that number could be below 200 this year.
“Specifically that they have a 31% rate lower than it was in 2019 through the first four months of the year,” said report author Chandler Hall from CAP. The rates used in the analysis were adjusted for population change.
Hall said the country is on its way towards two back-to-back years with historic drops in violence.
“Going back to pre-pandemic levels shouldn't be considered the benchmark for which we grade ourselves on. We want to get far below that. But this is a really positive sign that we are moving out of the worst effects of the pandemic,” said Hall.
A host of factors are likely responsible for the widespread reductions. One major factor is the number of cities that have invested in violence prevention programs, most especially holistic programs that relied on community-led and targeted approaches to crime.
There are 40 violence prevention offices at both state and local levels that look at and build individualized public safety responses. Many, but not all, of those have been funded through programs like the American Rescue Plan Act, a one-time source. Researchers also noted legislation like the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (BSCA) which makes gun trafficking a federal offense, strengthens the background check system for gun purchases, and invests in mental health providers. The BSCA also put $250 million into Community-Based Violence and intervention and Prevention Initiative programs.
Baltimore spent $50 million of its own ARPA money to expand violence intervention and victims’ services programs through the Mayor’s Office of Neighborhood Safety and Engagement.
In 2022, Mayor Brandon Scott relaunched the Group Violence Reduction Strategy– a program that has community partners target people most at-risk of violence, particularly gang violence, and connects them to services. A study from the University of Pennsylvania found that the GVRS led to a 33% drop in gun homicides and nonfatal shootings in the city’s Western police district.
Hall cautions against simple correlations equaling causations when crediting these programs for the drop– after all, researchers wrote other economic and social factors are at play too. Still, there’s no doubt for Hall that targeted and community-led solutions to gun violence are working.
“We are facing a funding cliff, and if we don't have the same level or greater urgency now to really lock in…. our public safety gains, I fear that we'll be having a similar conversation down the road of violence going back up. So it really is a call to action that what we're doing now is working and we need to continue to have the same or greater level of urgency.”
