The latest cooperative survey found 238 million blue crabs in the Chesapeake Bay waters of Maryland and Virginia in winter 2025, down 25% from 317 million last year.
The data set from the Chesapeake Bay Blue Crab Winter Dredge Survey, a joint effort by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources and the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, showed declines across the female, male and juvenile populations. Juvenile recruitment marked its sixth year of decline.
“We saw a very high mortality rate among blue crabs this winter, likely due to several cold snaps,” said Mandy Bromilow, the blue crab program manager for Maryland’s Department of Natural Resources. “With the results of the stock assessment next year, we hope to have more insight on what could be contributing to the ongoing low juvenile recruitment and what we can do to support the Chesapeake Bay’s blue crabs.”
Bromilow urged “caution” in blue crab management until that assessment is complete.
This year’s total abundance is the second lowest since the survey began in 1990. The lowest abundance was recorded in 2022.
Natural fluctuations happen, DNR described it as a “boom and bust” cycle.
In addition to a cold winter, Allison Colden, the Executive Director of the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, shared a few theories for the decline.
“That includes water pollution, which impacts the amount of underwater grasses, which are a key nursery habitat for juvenile and small crabs,” said Colden.
And Colden noted the “looming concern” of the invasive blue catfish, “which we know are voracious predators, especially of those small crabs.”
Despite the low numbers, there are some silver linings. Females are holding out “above threshold” meaning that their numbers aren’t low enough to trigger a management response. Still, at 108 million, they are well below the target of 196 million crabs. Given the right conditions, representatives from the DNR believe the abundance of mature females is likely high enough to support a strong juvenile year class as long as environmental conditions are favorable.
