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Understanding the Unemployment Rate

Andy Nguyen/flickr

There are futurists who have been saying that the U.S. is racing towards a jobless economy – one characterized by cashier free stores, driverless trucks, and financial professionals powered by artificial intelligence. Perhaps, but right now, America is home to many employment opportunities. Last month, the U.S. unemployment rate dipped to four point 6 percent, well below the 5.8 percent average that has been recorded since 1948.

As reported by Bloomberg, the number of unemployed people per job opening is down to just 1.4 from a high approaching seven in July of 2009. According to a recent survey conducted by the National Federal of Independent Business, 31 percent of small businesses report that they cannot fill jobs.  Still, there were times when unemployment was even lower.

During the early 1950s, the unemployment rate dipped below 3 percent. And average hourly earnings have still only expanded 2.4 percent over the past year, in part due to ongoing competition from foreign workers.  Despite the only moderate growth in worker earnings, U.S. labor market strength helped persuade the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates roughly two weeks ago. 

Anirban Basu, Chariman Chief Executive Officer of Sage Policy Group (SPG), is one of the Mid-Atlantic region's leading economic consultants. Prior to founding SPG he was Chairman and CEO of Optimal Solutions Group, a company he co-founded and which continues to operate. Anirban has also served as Director of Applied Economics and Senior Economist for RESI, where he used his extensive knowledge of the Mid-Atlantic region to support numerous clients in their strategic decision-making processes. Clients have included the Maryland Department of Transportation, St. Paul Companies, Baltimore Symphony Orchestra Players Committee and the Martin O'Malley mayoral campaign.