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The Morning Economic Report

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Anirban Basu, Chairman Chief Executive Officer of Sage Policy Group (SPG), is one of the Mid-Atlantic region's leading economic consultants.  Prior to founding SPG he was Chairman and CEO of Optimal Solutions Group, a company he co-founded and which continues to operate. Anirban has also served as Director of Applied Economics and Senior Economist for RESI, where he used his extensive knowledge of the Mid-Atlantic region to support numerous clients in their strategic decision-making processes.  Clients have included the Maryland Department of Transportation, St. Paul Companies, Baltimore Symphony Orchestra Players Committee and the Martin O'Malley mayoral campaign.

He is the author of numerous regional publications including the Mid-Atlantic Economic Quarterly and Outlook Maryland. Anirban completed his graduate work in mathematical economics at the University of Maryland.  He earned a Masters in Public Policy from Harvard University in 1992.  His Bachelors in Foreign Service is from Georgetown University and was earned in 1990.

Inflation

May 10, 2017
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Inflationary pressures have been building globally. For instance, as indicated by writer Neil Irwin, in the Eurozone, inflation reached two percent during the year ended this February for the first time since 2013. In America, a key measure of inflation that is favored by the Federal Reserve crossed the two percent threshold for the first time in five years.

Anirban has more. 


Sellers Wield Power

May 10, 2017
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You remember that a few years ago the housing market could be easily characterized as a buyers.  During and after the recession, there was a flood of foreclosures and a dearth of people qualifying for mortgages looking to purchase a dwelling.  The result was a collapse in prices.  

Anirban has more on this story. 


Ricardo/flickr

Despite the ability of communications technology to better connect us to the balance of the world irrespective of where we are, cities are becoming more important, not less so. This is particularly true for cities in emerging nations. While wealthier nations of the world were urbanized decades ago, the proportion of urban dwellers in emerging markets is in the range of fifty percent today.  

Anirban has more on this story. 


Glenn Carstens-Peters/Unsplash

According to the economics research team at Glassdoor, male and female college graduates who hold the same bachelor’s degree will frequently self-sort into different occupational categories due to societal pressure and norms.  As reported by CNBC, male graduates will tend to gravitate toward higher earning jobs whereas women will gravitate toward lower earning positions.

More on this subject, Anirban Basu.

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Elections in the U.S. and in Europe have brought to light just how differently people view the effects of immigration.  Among many groups, immigration has fallen out of favor. But an analysis of United Nations data by Fitch Ratings indicates that halting immigration would drastically diminish the potential working population of developed economies, leaving these aging societies more dependent on shrinking labor forces and resulting in significant financial stress on pension systems.  

On immigration, Anirban Basu.

Mike Petrucci/Unsplash

Stores are closing at an epic pace in America, this despite the fact that economic performance has improved recently and that we are in the midst of an eighth year of economic recovery. 

As reported by CNNMoney, brokerage firm Credit Suisse recently indicated in a research report that it is possible that more than eighty six hundred brick-and-mortar stores will shutter their doors in twenty seventeen.  By comparison, the report says that only about two thousand stores were closed last year.  

With more, Anirban Basu.

frankieleon/flickr

The paychecks of Americans are rising at their fastest rate since the recession ended.  As indicated by writer Eric Morath, median weekly earnings for full-time workers rose 3.9% during the first quarter relative to a year ago according to the Labor Department.  That represents the best gain since late two thousand and eight. 

It took nearly eight years of economic recovery to get to this point, but the nearly four percent growth in weekly pay is roughly the rate reached during the two prior economic expansions.

Join Anirban Basu for more.

Ricardo/Flickr

  Last year, the International Monetary Fund repeatedly downgraded its forecast for the global economic outlook.  After coming into twenty sixteen suggesting that global economic conditions would improve, the Fund eventually downgraded its estimate of twenty-sixteen global economic expansion to three point one percent.  That was the worst year for global growth since the financial crisis ended.  

Listen for more details.

David Goldman/AP

In light of falling unemployment rates, economists have been predicting faster wage growth.  The logic is obvious.  With fewer available jobseekers, expanding employers need to offer more money to fill job openings. 

Moreover, as demand for workers expands, more current employees are likely to be lured to other firms, but only if those other employers offer higher compensation.  All of this serves to expand wages, but rather than accelerating, growth in American wages has been leveling off recently. 

Listen for more.

Joshua Davis/Unsplash

For years, Americans have wondered why the U.S. economy hasn’t been expanding more rapidly.  Since the end of the Great Recession, economic growth has averaged only about two percent per annum and has yet to achieve three percent rate in any given calendar year.  Economists have put forward all kinds of explanations ranging from the dislocating impacts of technology to global trade and the retirement of Baby Boomers.

Join Anirban Basu for more.

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